Delegate Update and Thoughts

According to the Obama camp, they are now ahead in pledged delegates by a margin of 85. They have won the past 5 contests (Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, The Virgin Islands and Maine) by a difference of 57 delegates. That far exceeds the expectations they had according to an internal memo which showed them winning those 5 contests by only 29 delegates (See below). A strong showing on Tuesday should only help increase that margin. My personal take a few days ago was that if they can increase the margin of difference to over 100 pledged delegates after Tuesday (which it seems likely they will do) they should readily be able to withstand reasonable losses in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and still go into the convention with the pledged delegate lead. If we can tie in delegates in the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4th then I think we can make a convincing case that the nomination is our's. The more likely scenario is that we lose in those two states, but keep the losses reasonable and end up heading to the convention leading in pledged delegates. This would mean a lot of bickering about the fates of the Michigan and Florida contests (a redo would likely be in order) and a lot of debate about how Super Delegates should vote since they would be undermining the will of the voters were Obama to be going into the convention with the lead. What's certain is that more than ever before, we now have a clear path to the nomination. It won't be easy as the media will try to spin Texas and Ohio wins for Hillary into a "comeback kid" narrative, but it certainly is doable.

Obama Camp Results Expectations from A Week Ago

(Click on image to enlarge)