I do believe people put too much weight into polls, and that the media's obsession with them often causes them to produce results versus reflect them. But I trust that the two and a half people who actually read this site (ok more, but still...) aren't so easily duped as to be either completely discouraged or overly confident just because of a couple of polls. Having said that, these are some recent numbers from Real Clear Politics, which tracks a number of different polls and lists their averages on their site.
- Obama is polling 8 points behind Clinton nationally
- Obama, Clinton and Edwards are virutally tied in Nevada
- Obama is ahead about 5 points in South Carolina in the only poll taken after New Hampshire
- Obama is behind 15 points in two recent polls taken in California
While the California number looks very discouraging, it's really not much of a margin at all, as there are 20 days left to the primary and two important races ahead of that date. The point of this all is that it's all going to come down to who gets most active on the ground.
I talked to my brother for a while today about different strategies regarding how we could best get our friends and family out to the polls. I suggest you do the same with your friends and family. Sit your friends down at a computer and make them register in front of you if they haven't already. Learn the issues well. Memorize the Top Ten Reasons to Vote for Obama list, or make your own (which will make it more personal) and use that information to effectively communicate why this election is so important. E-mail your friends your list, or the one on this site, and remind them to vote. Offer to answer any questions they might have (and ask any you might have here and I'll do my best to answer). Make sure you call them to remind them to vote on election day. In other words, get organized and remember that every vote counts. These polls only tell us enough to know that the get out the vote operation is what is going to make the ultimate difference. So let's do it!
P.S: If you do make your own list, post it on the site and I'll add it as an entry.
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