Honestly folks, there is a reason why the delegates in Florida are not being assigned. First is the obvious that not only did all candidates agree to not have them count, they all also agreed not to campaign there. But then you might say, them not campaigning would just mean that they're all on an equal footing, right? Well, no and I'll explain. In every state that Obama has campaigned in so far, he has erased 20 percentage point differences in the polls by actually campaigning and sharing his message with the voters. Remember, Clinton has big name recognition, so before people actually learn that Obama is a substantial candidate with a long record on issues like health care and poverty, they immediately default to Clinton. But any state where Obama has had a chance to introduce his record through T.V. spots and rallies, the large leads in polls that Clinton has disappear. So besides the fact that it's really poor sportsmanship for the Clinton campaign to now be whining about the delegates, it's simply not fair to have them count.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Why Florida Delegates Are Not Being Assigned
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3 comments:
Do you realize how many people in Iowa detest Hillary Clinton? A lot. It's interesting, most Clinton supporters are silent supporters, afraid that their friends will chastise them if they pledge their support. The only people around here that are 'allowed' to support her are older ladies. At least that's what I've seen in broad generalized terms.
Are there any polls that show how many people would vote for the other guy (republican)if Hillary got the nomination of the party?
Hey Chad, what's up? I have to be honest, I often catch myself debating voting for a third party candidate were she to be the nominee, but then I remember that Republicans are fucking crazy. I'm referring to the base here, not so much the run of the mill Republican voter, but the candidates always pander to the base (just look how McCain has transformed into an uber neocon these past few years...well that and Jerry Falwell and company's butt licker).
Averages of the four most recent McCain vs. Clinton and McCain vs. Obama matchups show Clinton behind 5% and Obama behind 2%. The latest one shows McCain up 6% on Obama and 8% on Clinton, but the one right before that showed Obama beating McCain by 5% and Hillary beating him by 2%. It's too early to tell how the general election would go, especially with polling being so unreliable (and I read an article today about how an unconventional candidate like Obama, because of his massive youth support, tends to break polling patterns more frequently than others).
Still, my unbiased opinion--even if the polls stated otherwise--is that Obama has a far greater chance of beating Clinton. It's just common sense, as he has had a post-partisan message ever since he hit the national stage. He wouldn't have to alter his message during the general election. On the other hand, Clinton will activate the Republican base like no one else. You'll see commercials of Monica Lewinsky and Bill Clinton's pathetic explanation of "it depends on what your definition of is is" playing over and over again.
Just my two cents.
Btw, here's the link to the polls I gave:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama
Though again, I think the polls are less why I think the way I do and the reasons I gave above really why I feel that way.
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